Models

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Bioenergy > Impacts > Modeling

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This page provides information on models -- software programs and other tools -- used to analyze or predict the impacts of biofuels.

As the usage of biofuels -- and demand for feedstocks used in their production -- grows, changes are to be expected in terms of land use patterns, total greenhouse gases emitted, etc. Different models are therefore used by researchers and policymakers to assess land use changes, the life cycle impacts of biofuel use on greenhouse gas emissions, and other impacts on the economy, agriculture and the environment. Other models are used to assess the logistics of biofuels production and usage in the marketplace (such as supply chain-related models).

Below, various models are introduced, grouped by category. Where possible, descriptions of the models are given, along with information on the institutions that have developed each model.

Contents

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Land Use Change

Global

Regional

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Life cycle analysis (LCA)/GHG emissions models

Click here for general information on life cycle analysis.

General

  • GaBi
    • PE International, Germany
    • Gabi Software includes several different versions such as GaBi 4, GaBi lite, GaBi DfX, and GaBi-EDIP and includes a huge range of databases . The models are capable of integrating and manipulating complex environmental factors to, for example, follow the life cycle of a product or service. The software is deemed a reliable and comprehensive tool to communicate life cycle assessment with internal and external constituents.

Fuel/Vehicle Models

For corn:

Click here for RSB Working Group on Greenhouse Gases

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Economic

Global

Regional

  • Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM)
    • FASOM-GHG (PDF file)
    • EPA and Texas A&M (Bruce McCarl)
    • Collaborating Labs: ORNL and PNNL
    • Description
  • FAPRI
    • Managed By:
    • Collaborating Labs:
    • Description
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Agriculture/Environment

Examples:

  • CENTURY Model
    • Colorado State
    • "The CENTURY version 5 agroecosystem model is the latest version of the soil organic model developed by Parton et al. (1987). This model simulates C, N, P, and S dynamics through an annual cycle over time scales of centuries and millennia. The producer submodel may be a grassland/crop, forest or savanna system, with the flexibility of specifying potential primary production curves representing the site-specific plant community. CENTURY was especially developed to deal with a wide range of cropping system rotations and tillage practices for system analysis of the effects of management and global change on productivity and sustainability of agroecosystems." (Source: Abstract from Oak Ridge National laboratory website.)
  • SPARROW
    • United States Geological Survey (USGS)
    • "The SPARROW method uses spatially referenced regressions of contaminant transport on watershed attributes to support regional water-quality assessment goals, including descriptions of spatial and temporal patterns in water quality and identification of the factors and processes that influence those conditions. The method is designed to reduce the problems of data interpretation caused by sparse sampling, network bias, and basin heterogeneity." (Source: Abstract from the Goddard Space Flight Center website.)
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Supply Chain/Infrastructure/Logistics

Examples:

  • Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) (PDF file)
    • Oak Ridge National Laboratory
    • "The IBSAL model is a simulation of a biomass supply chain. It consists of a network of operational modules and connectors threading the modules into a complete supply chain. Each module represents a process or an event. For example, grain combining, swathing, baling, loading a truck, truck travel, stacking, grinding, sizing, storing, each process is a module. Modules may also be processes such as drying, wetting, and chemical reactions such as breakdown of carbohydrates." [4]
  • Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)
    • National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
    • "The BSM is a dynamic model describing the deployment of biofuels technology in the marketplace. This model tracks the deployment of ethanol given development of new technologies (in feedstock collection, conversion and vehicles) and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in light of the competing oil market, vehicle demand for biofuels and various government policies over time." (Source: CITATION NEEDED)



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